As reported by Interfax-Ukraine, the article presents the key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the world economy as of the end of April 2026. The analysis was prepared on the basis of data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, the Ministry of Finance, the State Customs Service, the International Monetary Fund, Eurostat, BEA, BLS, NBS, ONS, TurkStat, IBGE and other official institutions. Monthly and quarterly statistical data released after the end of the reporting period were used for the indicators for April.
Maxim Urakin, candidate of economic sciences and founder of the information and analytical center Experts Club, presented overview of the main trends that determined the state of the Ukrainian and world economy in April and early May 2026.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
As of the end of April, the Ukrainian economy maintained macro-financial control, but inflation, currency and foreign trade risks intensified. Consumer inflation accelerated from March, international reserves fell for the third month in a row, and the trade deficit continued to widen. At the same time, the state provided financing for defense, social payments and critical budget needs, and the NBU maintained control over the foreign exchange market.
According to the preliminary assessment of the State Statistics Service, the real GDP of Ukraine in the 1st quarter of 2026 decreased by 0.6% compared to the 1st quarter of 2025. Compared to the previous quarter, taking into account the seasonal factor, the decline was 0.7%.
Nominal GDP was equal to UAH 2,047.2 billion. The negative dynamics were explained by the shortage of electricity, the destruction of infrastructure, delays in external financing, weak investment activity and unfavorable weather conditions at the beginning of the year. At the same time, private consumption remained relatively stable, and the manufacturing industry, trade and certain service sectors showed growth.
The National Bank in its April forecast worsened the estimate of real GDP growth of Ukraine in 2026 to 1.3%. The main reasons were the further destruction of the energy and logistics infrastructure, a greater shortage of electricity, high energy prices and weaker results in the first quarter. The NBU expected that the growth of the economy would be supported by consumer demand, investments in reconstruction and the defense-industrial complex, but it did not predict a quick transition to a sustainable recovery.
"The results of the first quarter confirmed that the Ukrainian economy remains extremely sensitive to energy, military and budgetary shocks. Positive domestic demand and business adaptability can no longer fully compensate for losses from the destruction of infrastructure, electricity shortages and weak exports. The 1.3% growth forecast means actual stagnation per capita. Therefore, the main task should be not only the maintenance of financial stability, but also the restoration of production capacities," Urakin noted.
The inflationary situation worsened in April. Consumer inflation accelerated to 8.6% in annual terms against 7.9% in March. Prices rose by 1.4% over the month, and by 4.9% since the beginning of the year. Core inflation rose to 7.6% y/y, service inflation — to 13.3%, and fuel cost growth reached 36.1% y/y.
The main source of inflationary pressure was the rise in prices of energy carriers and fuel, which increased business costs for logistics, electricity and production. An additional impact was the increase in wages, the transfer of the previous weakening of the hryvnia to consumer prices, and the increase in the cost of certain food products and transport services. Bread, cereals, sunflower oil, fish, restaurant and household services rose in price faster.
The NBU's April forecast predicted an acceleration of inflation to 9.4% at the end of 2026. A return to a steady decline was expected in 2027, when inflation was supposed to slow down to 6.5%, and to the target level of 5% in 2028.
On April 30, the board of the National Bank kept the discount rate at the level of 15% per annum. The regulator explained the decision by the need to maintain the attractiveness of hryvnia assets, the controllability of inflationary expectations and the stability of the foreign exchange market. The NBU's forecast predicted keeping the interest rate at 15% at least until the second quarter of 2027. In the case of further strengthening of price pressure, the regulator allowed the application of additional measures, including a rate increase.
"The acceleration of inflation to 8.6% and the sharp rise in fuel prices did not leave the National Bank room to continue the policy easing cycle. Under the current conditions, the 15% interest rate is not so much a tool to curb lending as a mechanism to protect confidence in the hryvnia. The risk of a premature rate cut now significantly exceeds the potential short-term effect on economic activity," Urakin emphasized.
The foreign exchange sector remained under control, but needed significant support from the regulator. As of May 1, 2026, Ukraine's international reserves amounted to $48.215 billion, having decreased by 7.3% over April. This was the third consecutive monthly decline in reserves.
In April, the National Bank of Ukraine sold $3.577 billion on the foreign exchange market, while receipts to the government's currency accounts amounted to only $377.9 million. $716.6 million was allocated to servicing and repaying the state debt in foreign currency, and Ukraine paid another $255.3 million to the IMF. The losses were partly offset by a positive revaluation of financial instruments by $378 million. Despite the reduction, reserves provided financing for 4.9 months of future imports.
"The reduction in reserves from almost $52 billion to $48.2 billion in one month is noticeable, but not yet critical. The reason is much more important: the private foreign exchange market remains structurally deficient, and international receipts do not always coincide in time with the needs for interventions and debt payments. Therefore, the stability of the hryvnia will continue to depend on the rhythm of external financing and Ukraine's ability to reduce the trade gap," Urakin believes.
According to the State Customs Service, Ukraine's trade turnover in January-April 2026 amounted to $46.1 billion. Imports reached $32.2 billion, and exports - $13.9 billion. Thus, the commodity deficit for four months was about $18.3 billion, and imports in exceeded exports by 2.3 times.
Ukraine imported the most goods from China - $8.7 billion, Poland - $3.1 billion, and Turkey - $2.2 billion. The main destinations of Ukrainian exports were Poland - $1.5 billion, Turkey - $1.2 billion, and Italy - $857 million.
In the structure of imports, machinery, equipment and transport accounted for $13.3 billion, fuel and energy products - $5.3 billion, chemical industry products — $4.6 billion. The basis of exports was food products for $8.5 billion, metals and their products for $1.3 billion, as well as machines, equipment and transport for $1.2 billion.
"The increase in the trade deficit to $18.3 billion in just four months is one of the main macroeconomic challenges. A significant part of imports is objectively necessary — energy carriers, equipment, transport, and defense products. However, the export base remains too narrow and raw. Without the development of processing, machine building, the defense industry and the export of services, Ukraine will continue to compensate for the trade deficit with international aid and reserves," Urakin emphasized.
The budget situation remained tense, but controlled. In January-April, the general fund of the state budget received UAH 1.04 trillion. The total amount of cash expenditures of the general fund amounted to UAH 1.35 trillion, which is 13.8% more than in the same period of 2025. Directly in April, the revenues of the general fund amounted to UAH 302.6 billion, and expenses to UAH 433.1 billion.
Expenditures on security and defense in four months reached UAH 854.1 billion, or 63.3% of all expenditures of the general fund. In April, UAH 283.1 billion was allocated to these needs. UAH 555.5 billion was spent on salaries of employees of the budget sector with accruals, on social security — UAH 235 billion, on subsidies and transfers to enterprises — UAH 205.4 billion, on goods and services — UAH 151.4 billion, on servicing the state debt — UAH 103.2 billion.
International grants for January-April amounted to UAH 228.2 billion, in particular 55.1 UAH billion was received in April. In general, the general and special funds of the state budget received UAH 1.43 trillion in four months, and cash expenditures of the state budget amounted to UAH 1.7 trillion.
"The budget retains its functionality, but its structure is completely determined by the war. When nearly two-thirds of general fund spending goes to defense and security, the ability to finance long-term development remains limited. Under such conditions, it is especially important that international aid covers the civil needs of the budget, and domestic resources are directed as efficiently as possible to defense, energy, and industrial recovery," Urakin said.
Global Economy
The world economy remained stable as of the end of April 2026, but the geopolitical and inflationary background significantly worsened. The war in the Middle East has driven up energy prices, raised inflationary expectations and forced major central banks to delay further easing of monetary policy.
In its April World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund projected global economic growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, assuming limited duration and geography of conflict. The IMF warned that a longer war, deepening geopolitical fragmentation, new trade disputes and high public debt could significantly worsen the outlook.
The US economy maintained positive dynamics. According to the BEA's revised estimate, real GDP in the first quarter of 2026 increased by 2.1% at an annualized rate compared to the previous quarter. Growth was provided by investments, exports, government and consumer spending.
At the same time, inflation in the US continued to accelerate. In April, CPI increased by 3.8% year-on-year after 3.3% in March. Core inflation was 2.8%, and energy inflation was 17.9%. Energy prices rose by 3.8% and gasoline by 5.4% in just one month.
On April 29, the Federal Reserve kept the range of the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75%. The Fed pointed to higher inflation, rising global energy prices and high uncertainty surrounding events in the Middle East.
The Eurozone showed much weaker economic dynamics. According to Eurostat's preliminary estimate, available on April 30, the GDP of the euro area in the 1st quarter increased by only 0.1% compared to the previous quarter and by 0.8% in annual terms. This indicated the actual stagnation of the region's economy.
Annual inflation in the Eurozone accelerated to 3.0% in April against 2.6% in March. In the European Union, it rose to 3.2%. Services, energy and food made the biggest contribution to price growth.
On April 30, the European Central Bank kept the deposit rate at 2.0%, the rate of main refinancing operations at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%. The ECB emphasized that the risks of rising inflation and worsening economic growth have increased due to the energy shock.
In Great Britain, on the contrary, inflation in April slowed to 2.8% in annual terms after 3.3% in March. Core CPI fell to 2.5% and services inflation to 3.2%. At the same time, the price of motor fuel rose significantly due to the external energy shock.
On April 30, the Bank of England kept the base rate at 3.75%. Eight members of the Monetary Policy Committee supported the decision, while one favored a rate hike to 4%.
“April showed that the global cycle of rapid interest rate cuts has effectively been put on hold. The US faced inflation accelerating to 3.8%, the Eurozone to 3%, and central banks were once again forced to focus on energy risks. For Ukraine, this means more expensive global capital, more difficult conditions for exports and additional pressure due to fuel prices," said Urakin.
The Chinese economy grew by 5.0% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026. Nominal GDP reached 33.419 trillion yuan. Industrial production increased by 6.1%, the service sector by 5.2%, and foreign trade in goods by 15%. At the same time, investments in real estate decreased by 11.2%, which indicated the persistence of structural problems. In April, China's CPI rose by 1.2% year-on-year and by 0.3% month-on-month. Average inflation for January-April was 0.9%. Meanwhile, retail sales rose just 0.2% year-on-year in April, pointing to weak domestic consumer demand.
India maintained the highest growth rates among major economies. After the transition to the new statistical base, the official estimate of real GDP growth in the 2025/26 financial year was raised to 7.6%, and nominal - to 8.6%. The main drivers remained the service sector, domestic consumption, construction and public investment.
Turkey again faced a sharp increase in inflation in April. Consumer prices increased by 4.18% for the month and by 32.37% in annual terms. Since the beginning of the year, inflation was 14.64%. The indicator exceeded the March level of 30.87%, which proved the instability of the disinflation process. At the same time, Turkish GDP grew by around 3.6% in 2025, confirming the economy's ability to sustain business activity even under high price pressures.
Brazil showed a more balanced trend, although inflation also accelerated. The country's GDP in 2025 grew by 2.3% to 12.7 trillion reais in current prices. In April 2026, the IPCA index increased by 0.67% for the month, and annual inflation reached 4.39%, compared to 4.14% in March. Food products, medical goods and services made the biggest contribution.
"China, India, Turkey and Brazil demonstrate four different development models. China maintains a strong pace thanks to industry and exports, but still has problems with domestic demand and real estate. India relies on demographics, services and investment. Turkey maintains growth at the cost of very high inflation. Brazil is moving more slowly, but is trying to maintain a balance between economic activity and price stability. For Ukraine, the main conclusion is that long-term growth is impossible without its own production, technological and export base," says Urakin.
Conclusions
As of the end of April 2026, Ukraine maintained macro-financial manageability, but the main indicators indicated an increase in risks. Real GDP in the 1st quarter decreased by 0.6% y/y, inflation accelerated to 8.6% in April, core inflation to 7.6%, and the discount rate remained at 15%.
International reserves decreased to $48.2 billion, or 7.3% for the month. The commodity deficit for January-April reached $18.3 billion. Revenues of the general fund of the state budget amounted to UAH 1.04 trillion, while expenditures — UAH 1.35 trillion. UAH 854.1 billion, or 63.3% of all expenditures of the general fund, were allocated to security and defense.
Positive factors remained a significant volume of reserves, a controlled currency policy, international financing, stable consumer demand, adaptability of business and the development of defense production. The main risks were the continuation of the war, the destruction of the energy infrastructure, the increase in fuel prices, the shortage of workers, the weakness of exports and the dependence of the budget on foreign aid.
The world economy has also entered a more difficult period. The IMF forecast global growth of 3.1% in 2026, but warned of a preponderance of downside risks. Inflation accelerated to 3.8% in the US and 3.0% in the Eurozone, while central banks in the US, Eurozone and Great Britain kept interest rates unchanged. China grew by 5% in the first quarter, India maintained a pace of more than 7%, while Turkey once again faced inflation of more than 32%.
“April 2026 showed that Ukraine's stabilization model remains viable, but its financial cushion is shrinking. The simultaneous acceleration of inflation, reduction of reserves and widening of the trade deficit is a signal that foreign aid cannot be the only basis of economic stability. Ukraine needs to move from financing current survival to creating a new production model. Its basis should be energy autonomy, the defense-industrial complex, agro-processing, mechanical engineering, logistics, digital technologies, and the export of products with high added value. Only such a transition is capable of turning macro-financial stability from a temporary safety cushion into a foundation for long-term development," Maksym Urakin concluded.
Ukraine, economy, inflation, reserve, Experts Club, Urakin
