World demand for steel in 2026 will practically not change and will amount to about 1.722 billion tons, but in 2027 it may increase by 1.7% to 1.752 billion tons, according to the October short-term forecast of the World Association of Steel Producers Worldsteel.
Worldsteel's new forecast shows an increasingly noticeable discrepancy between China and the rest of the world market. If demand continues to decline in China, recovery is gradually accelerating outside China.
According to Worldsteel's estimate, demand for steel outside China will grow by 1.5% in 2026, and by 4% in 2027. It is the scale of the Chinese market that actually hides stronger positive dynamics in other countries.
Worldsteel Economic Affairs Committee Chairman Alfonso Hidalgo Calcerrada noted that the recovery is developing more slowly than expected in the spring. In April, the association expected moderate growth in global demand as early as 2026 and an increase of 2.2% in 2027, but now the forecast for next year has been reduced to 1.7%.
China remains the main drag on the world market. Demand for steel in the country is expected to decline by 2% in 2026 and by another 1% in 2027. The reason remains the weakness of the real estate market and infrastructure investments. The growth of industrial production and exports is not yet able to fully compensate for the decline of these two largest areas of metal consumption.
India is at the opposite pole. It remains the world's fastest-growing steel market: demand in the country is expected to increase by 7.9% in 2026 to 172.4 million tons, and by another 8% in 2027 to 186.2 million tons. Infrastructure construction, private real estate, industry and renewable energy projects remain the main drivers.
In developing countries, excluding China, demand is forecast to increase by 1.9% in 2026 and immediately by 5.1% in 2027. At the same time, growth in ASEAN-5 will be 5.2% in 2026, and Vietnam will for the first time approach the consumption of about 30 million tons of steel thanks to intensive construction and a large-scale public investment program.
The situation is completely different in the countries of the Persian Gulf. After demand growth of 17.7% in 2025, Worldsteel expects it to fall by around 11% in 2026 due to continued instability in the Middle East, delays in investment decisions and postponement of the start of construction projects. If the situation stabilizes, the association predicts a recovery of 11.3% in 2027.
One of the key trends of 2027, Worldsteel considers the recovery of industrial growth in developed economies. Additional demand for steel should be provided by investments in artificial intelligence and data centers, growth in defense spending, energy transition, infrastructure projects and railway construction.
In the European Union, recovery is still delayed. Worldsteel expects apparent EU steel consumption to decline by 0.3% in 2026, before increasing by 3.1% in 2027. The forecast for the European market was immediately revised downwards by 1.5 percentage points.
Worldsteel attributes the relatively strong 2025 performance in the EU to, in particular, stockpiling ahead of the launch of the CBAM cross-border carbon adjustment mechanism in 2026. At the same time, the fundamental indicators of the European industry turned out to be weaker than expected: the construction recovery is slow, the volume of completed housing remains low, and the automotive industry continues to limit demand.
The US, on the other hand, should maintain positive dynamics. Demand for steel in the country may grow by 2% in 2026 and by approximately 1.5% in 2027. Worldsteel calls investments in data centers, energy, renewable generation, oil and gas infrastructure and large industrial projects as the main source of growth.
Moderate recovery is also expected in Japan and South Korea. In Japan, demand may grow by 0.9% in 2026 and by 1.7% in 2027, in South Korea by 1.8% and 1.3%, respectively. However, even after such growth, both countries will not yet return to the levels of consumption that existed before the last recession.
According to the Experts Club assessment, the global steel market is gradually moving from a model in which global dynamics were primarily determined by China to a much more distributed demand structure. India, the countries of Southeast Asia, US infrastructure projects and the expected recovery of Europe are becoming increasingly important sources of growth.
At the same time, the structure of metal consumption is also changing. If previously one of the main drivers was massive housing construction in China, now more and more steel is needed for energy infrastructure, data centers, defense projects, railways and industrial equipment.
At the same time, Worldsteel remains cautious about 2027. The forecast is based on data available at the beginning of September 2026, and continued instability in the Middle East and possible new disruptions to energy and logistics chains remain the main risks for the global market.
Thus, 2026 is likely to be another year of stagnation for the global steel market, but already in 2027, growth may significantly accelerate outside of China. At the same time, the geography of demand is becoming increasingly diversified, and the main structural drivers of the industry are gradually becoming infrastructure, energy and new technological investments.
Source: Worldsteel, Short Range Outlook, October 2026.
