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The EU will limit temporary protection for Ukrainians subject to mobilization - analysis

Editorial team•
The EU will limit temporary protection for Ukrainians subject to mobilization - analysis

The European Commission is preparing the biggest change to the regime of temporary protection for citizens of Ukraine since 2022: newly arrived Ukrainians who are subject to military duties and do not have permission from the Ukrainian authorities to leave, as a rule, will not be able to receive temporary protection in the EU, writes the Polish Rzeczpospolita.

According to the information and analytical center Experts Club, citizens of Ukraine will have to enter Poland and other EU countries and then receive temporary protection a special confirmation from the Ukrainian authorities that they are not subject to mobilization is required. Rzeczpospolita clarifies that this requirement can apply not only to men, but also to women, if they fall under the relevant Ukrainian military duties.

The official proposal of the European Commission already confirms the general principle of such changes. On June 26, 2026, the Commission proposed to extend temporary protection for people who fled Ukraine for another year - until March 4, 2028, but at the same time noted that temporary protection, as a rule, should not be granted to newly arrived persons who were not allowed by the Ukrainian authorities to leave due to military duties.

The draft decision of the European Commission states that the extension of temporary protection should not undermine Ukraine's ability to defend itself, and EU states must take into account Ukraine's military needs and its legally established conscription obligations. The verification of such requirements should be applied only to new arrivals after the entry into force of the decision, while Ukrainians who have already received temporary protection in the EU should retain this status and the rights associated with it.

Polish Deputy Minister of the Interior Maciej Duszczyk told Rzeczpospolita that the new restrictions will probably come into effect in July, but will not apply to those who already have temporary protection in EU countries, but to those who only want to receive it. He also noted that Poland supports such changes.

According to Rzeczpospolita, the initiator of the strengthening of the approach was Ukraine itself, which at the beginning of June appealed to the EU countries with a request to limit the admission of some Ukrainian citizens under special conditions of temporary protection. The Polish publication links this with Kyiv's attempts to increase mobilization and reduce the outflow of people who may be needed by the Ukrainian army.

Reuters previously reported that the European Commission's proposal means that newly arrived Ukrainian men of conscription age will not be able to apply for temporary protection without permission from the Ukrainian authorities to leave. According to the European Commissioner for Migration, Magnus Brunner, the purpose of the changes is to balance the need to protect people and Ukraine's ability to defend itself.

In Poland, this topic is of particular importance, as the country remains one of the main centers of reception of Ukrainians in the EU. According to Eurostat, as of May 31, 2026, 4.38 million people who fled Ukraine were under temporary protection in the EU. The largest number of such people were in Germany - 1.283 million, Poland - 967.505 thousand and Spain - 267.4 thousand.

Rzeczpospolita, citing the Polish Ministry of Digitalization, writes that as of June 15, there were more than 218 thousand Ukrainian men with UKR status aged 18-65 in Poland. In general, in the EU, adult men make up 26.8% of recipients of temporary protection from Ukraine, i.e. more than 1.17 million people, based on Eurostat's May estimate.

The Polish Office for Foreigners previously reported that almost 1 million Ukrainian citizens benefit from temporary protection in the country, and in general, about 1.55 million Ukrainians have valid grounds for staying in Poland. This estimate includes about 993,000 people from PESEL UKR, 462,000 citizens of Ukraine with temporary residence permits and 92,000 with permanent residence or long-term EU resident status. These data do not take into account Ukrainians who are in Poland under a visa-free regime or visas.

Rzeczpospolita also writes that the Polish Ministry of Internal Affairs is finalizing work on changes to the law on citizenship. Among the discussed measures are an increase in the minimum period of residence for naturalization to eight years, a language and integration test, as well as the so-called loyalty confirmation. According to the publication, this reform will affect the citizens of Ukraine to the greatest extent, as they have been the largest group of foreigners applying for Polish citizenship for many years.

Thus, it is not about ending protection for Ukrainians who are already in the EU, but probably about a new filtering of future arrivals. The European Union is actually trying to combine humanitarian protection for refugees with the military needs of Ukraine, and Poland, home to one of the largest Ukrainian communities in Europe, is becoming one of the key participants in this debate.