The article presents the key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the world economy as of the end of December 2025. The analysis was prepared on the basis of current data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSU), the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, as well as leading national statistical agencies (Eurostat, BEA, NBS, ONS, TurkStat, IBGE). Maksym Urakin, director of development and marketing of Interfax-Ukraine, candidate of economic sciences, doctor of philosophy in history and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, presented an overview of the current macroeconomic trends that determined the situation in Ukraine and the world at the beginning of 2026.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
At the end of January 2026, the Ukrainian economy entered a new year with a combination of two opposites trends: on the one hand, a gradual decrease in inflationary pressure, a record level of international reserves and the maintenance of a controlled situation on the foreign exchange market; on the other hand, there are military risks, the high dependence of the budget on external financing, the weakness of exports and the structural deficit of foreign currency in the private sector.
According to the NBU's assessment, the real GDP of Ukraine will grow by 1.8% in 2025. This meant that the economy maintained positive momentum for the third consecutive year, but the pace of recovery remained moderate. The National Bank of Ukraine attributed this dynamic to stable domestic demand, soft fiscal policy, business adaptability, and measures to maintain macro-financial stability. At the same time, the physical volume of exports decreased due to low stocks of agricultural products, weak external demand for MMC products and restrictions related to the electricity shortage at the end of the year.
In January 2026, the disinflationary trend continued. According to the DSSU data, which were commented on by the NBU, consumer inflation slowed to 7.4% in annual terms, while prices rose by 0.7% in monthly terms. Core inflation also decreased - to 7.0% y/y. The NBU attributed this dynamic to the reduction of imbalances in the labor market, the secondary effects of high harvests in 2025, competition from individual imported products, and the controlled situation on the foreign exchange market. At the same time, the regulator noted the first signs of increasing pressure from raw food products.
According to Maksym Urakin, January 2026 became an important test for the Ukrainian economy after the end of the difficult 2025. The decrease in inflation to 7.4% showed that the tight monetary conditions, the stabilization of the currency market and the improvement in the supply of food products gave results. But, according to his assessment, this result should not be interpreted as a complete normalization.
"At the beginning of 2026, Ukraine received a rare combination for a wartime economy - inflation was decreasing, the currency market remained under control, reserves were at their historical maximum, and the economy did not lose its positive dynamics. However, this does not mean that the country has entered the classic phase of recovery. Rather, we have a stabilization regime, in which many indicators look better thanks to external financing, budget expenditures, business adaptation and NBU policy. If international aid is removed from this structure or a new strong energy or currency shock is allowed, the stability of the system will again be in question," Urakin said.
The NBU's January decision on the discount rate became one of the key signals at the beginning of the year. On January 29, 2026, the National Bank announced the beginning of the cycle of softening of the interest policy and the reduction of the discount rate from 15.5% to 15.0% from January 30. The regulator attributed this to a steady decrease in inflationary pressure and a decrease in risks associated with external financing. At the same time, the NBU emphasized that inflation expectations remained relatively high, and the return of inflation to the 5% target is expected only on the policy horizon.
This decision did not mean a transition to soft monetary policy in the full sense. The real yield of hryvnia instruments remained positive, and the preservation of interest in hryvnia assets was one of the important factors restraining the demand for the currency. In the January Inflation Report, the National Bank of Ukraine noted that maintaining a high interest rate in previous months supported the demand for hryvnia assets, while private individuals' investments in OVDP and deposits in the national currency continued to grow.
"The reduction of the discount rate to 15% was a cautious and logical step, but it cannot be perceived as a signal of rapid depreciation of money. Ukraine remains in conditions of war, high budgetary needs and a significant foreign exchange deficit of the private sector. Therefore, the NBU is actually trying to walk a very narrow corridor: on the one hand, not to stifle economic activity with too expensive money, and on the other hand, not to lose control over inflation expectations and the currency market. In such a situation, every rate reduction should not be a political gesture, but the result of a real reduction of risks," Urakin emphasized.
The external sector remained the main pillar of Ukrainian macro-financial stability. According to the results of January 2026, the international reserves of Ukraine increased to $57.7 billion, renewing the historical maximum. The NBU explained the increase in reserves by the inflow of external financing, which mostly compensated for the net sale of currency by the National Bank and the country's debt payments in foreign currency.
In the January Inflation Report, the NBU also noted that in 2025, Ukraine received $52.4 billion in international financial support, including $32.7 billion from the EU, $12.0 billion from the United States, and $3.4 billion from Canada. At the beginning of 2026, reserves amounted to $57.3 billion, which corresponded to 5.8 months of future imports, and the forecast of the NBU predicted an increase in international reserves to $65 billion by the end of 2026 and to $71 billion by the end of 2028.
At the same time, foreign trade remained a weak spot. According to customs data, Ukraine's trade turnover in January 2026 amounted to $9.9 billion: imports - $6.7 billion, exports - $3.2 billion. This meant that the commodity deficit remained at a high level, and domestic demand for imports continued to significantly exceed foreign exchange earnings from exports.
“Record reserves are a strong stabilizing factor, but they should not create the illusion of self-sufficiency. Ukraine's balance of payments will continue to depend to a large extent on foreign aid, and not on the export capacity of the economy. When imports are more than double exports in merchandise trade, it means that a country is financing a significant portion of its current consumption and military needs with foreign resources. This is justified in the conditions of war, but strategically such a model cannot be permanent. In 2026, the key task should be to expand one's currency base through exports, processing, energy sustainability and investment in production," Urakin emphasized.
The budget situation at the beginning of 2026 also remained relatively controlled, but structurally strained. According to aggregated data on budget implementation, in January 2026, state budget revenues were about UAH 303.8 billion, and expenditures were about UAH 286.2 billion. Such a monthly picture did not cancel out the general problem of the year: public finances remained dependent on the rhythm of external financing, domestic borrowing and the government's ability to maintain confidence in hryvnia instruments. data-figure-caption="1" data-caption=" " data-source=" "> · Photo:
Global Economy
The global economy at the end of January 2026 looked more resilient than expected at the end of 2025, but this resilience was uneven. In the January update of the World Economic Outlook, the IMF forecast global economic growth of 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. The Fund attributed this to investments in technology, budgetary and monetary support, more favorable financial conditions and the adaptability of the private sector. At the same time, the IMF warned of risks related to the overestimation of expectations regarding the technological sector and the possible escalation of geopolitical tensions.
In the US, the economy maintained positive dynamics, but the pace at the end of 2025 slowed down. According to the BEA's preliminary estimate, US real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025 increased by 1.4% year-on-year after a stronger third quarter, and by 2025 by 2.2%. Growth was driven by consumer spending and investment, while exports and government spending held back the result. US inflation remained modestly above target, with the consumer price index rising 2.7% from December 2024 to December 2025 and the core CPI rising 2.6%. The Federal Reserve maintained its target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75% on January 28, 2026.
The eurozone entered early 2026 with near-target inflation but weak economic momentum. Eurostat estimated annual inflation in the euro area to be 2.0% in December 2025, down from 2.1% in November. Inflation in services remained the highest component at 3.4%, while the energy component was in the red. ECB rates at the beginning of 2026 remained at the levels set in 2025: the deposit rate - 2.0%, the main refinancing operations rate - 2.15%, the marginal lending rate - 2.40%.
The UK remained one of the most controversial large economies in Europe. According to the ONS, UK GDP is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2025, driven in particular by the services sector. However, inflation accelerated to 3.4% annualized in December 2025, which remained well above the Bank of England's target. In December 2025, the Bank of England cut the base rate to 3.75%, but the decision was taken by a narrow 5–4 majority, suggesting that divisions within the regulator remained over the pace of further easing.
"The world economy at the beginning of 2026 did not look like a crisis, but it cannot be called uniformly strong. The USA maintained positive dynamics, although without an overheated pace; the eurozone actually balanced between low inflation and weak growth; The UK had a slower growth but still elevated inflationary background. For Ukraine, this means that external demand is unlikely to become a powerful independent driver of recovery. Rather, the global environment creates moderately favorable financial conditions, but does not guarantee the automatic growth of Ukrainian exports," noted Maksym Urakin.
China ended 2025 with a formally strong result. According to the National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China, the country's GDP will grow by 5.0% to 140.1879 trillion yuan in 2025. The primary sector grew by 3.9%, the secondary sector by 4.5%, and the tertiary sector by 5.4%. At the same time, the inflation picture remained weak: in December 2025, the CPI grew by only 0.8% year-on-year, and the core inflation - by 1.2%. This indicated that the Chinese economy maintained manufacturing and export strength, but domestic consumer demand remained weak.
India, by contrast, remained the main driver of growth among major economies. According to the government's first advance estimate, India's real GDP was expected to grow by 7.4% in fiscal 2025/26, up from 6.5% in fiscal 2024/25. Nominal GDP was estimated at 8.0% growth, with the main driver of real GVA being the services sector. Meanwhile, inflation remained very low, with CPI at 1.33% year-on-year in December 2025 and food inflation negative.
Turkey at the start of 2026 remained an example of an economy with relatively high growth but a difficult inflationary legacy. According to TurkStat, inflation in December 2025 was 30.89% in annual terms, and in January 2026 it was 30.65%. Later official materials of the Ministry of Trade of Turkey testified that the country's economy grew by 3.6% in 2025, and by 3.4% y/y in the IV quarter.
Brazil ended 2025 on a modestly positive note. According to IBGE, IPCA inflation in 2025 was 4.26%, and December's monthly rate was 0.33%. Brazil's GDP in 2025 grew by 2.3% to 12.7 trillion reais at current prices. Growth was observed in all three main sectors: agriculture, industry and the service sector.
“China, India, Turkey and Brazil show very well how different the dynamics of large developing economies have become. China has a large scale and a strong manufacturing base, but still weak price momentum. India exhibits the most compelling combination of high growth and low inflation. Turkey maintains momentum, but the price of this growth is a very high inflationary background. Brazil moves more moderately, but in a more balanced way. For Ukraine, it is important to look at these examples not abstractly, but practically: in global competition, those economies that are able to simultaneously maintain macro-stability, the production base, exports and domestic investment demand will win," says Urakin.
Conclusions
As of the end of January 2026, Ukraine was in the mode of managed macro-financial stabilization. Inflation was declining, the discount rate was cautiously reduced to 15%, international reserves renewed their all-time high, and the economy maintained positive growth beyond the end of 2025. At the same time, this stability remained dependent on three key conditions: regular external financing, a controlled situation on the foreign exchange market, and the state's ability to maintain domestic demand without triggering a new inflationary wave.
The main risks for Ukraine at the beginning of 2026 were military losses, a deficit of energy infrastructure, weak exports, high budget needs, dependence on international aid, and a structural labor shortage. On the plus side, the NBU had record reserves and room for cautious policy easing. The negative is that the real production and export base has not yet created sufficient internal resources for independent recovery.
The world economy was not in a phase of deep crisis at the time. The IMF forecast global growth at 3.3% in 2026, the US remained resilient, the eurozone held close to its inflation target, India showed strong growth and China remained a large but structurally ambiguous source of global demand. At the same time, none of these external factors guaranteed Ukraine a quick recovery without internal solutions.
"January 2026 showed that Ukraine enters the new year not from the position of economic breakthrough, but from the position of preserved manageability. This is important, because in the conditions of war, the very ability to control inflation, exchange rate, budgetary needs and reserves is already a significant result. But the next stage will be more difficult: the country needs to move from a model of survival and stabilization to a model of productive recovery. This means investments in energy, the defense-industrial complex, processing, logistics, export production, human capital and technology. Without this, even the record reserves and foreign aid will remain only a financial cushion, and not a source of long-term growth," concluded Maksym Urakin.
The monthly analytical and statistical product "Economic Monitoring" is available to Interfax-Ukraine clients.
Head of the "Economic Monitoring" project, director of development and marketing of Interfax-Ukraine, candidate of economic sciences, doctor of philosophy in the field of history and founder Maksym Urakin
of the Experts Club information and analytical center
