As reported by Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market in the second half of September will be primarily influenced by the decisions of the largest central banks, American statistics consumer demand and inflation, as well as the large-scale quarterly expiration of bitcoin and ethereum options.
The main event will be the US Federal Reserve meeting on September 15-16. The bid decision will be announced on September 16. This meeting is particularly important, because together with the decision, the Fed will publish updated economic forecasts and the so-called dot plot — expectations of the regulator's members regarding the future trajectory of interest rates.
Intrigue surrounding the meeting increased sharply after the publication of August inflation data. Consumer prices in the US increased by 0.4% for the month and 3.4% for the year, core inflation was 0.3% for the month and 2.4% for the year. A day earlier, the producer price index PPI showed an increase of 0.4% for the month and immediately for 5.4% in annual terms.
Against this background, the market sharply increased expectations for a 25 basis point increase in the Fed rate. During September 11, futures estimated the probability of such a decision at about 82-87%, while just a few days before the publication of the CPI, the consensus forecast of Reuters economists predicted the maintenance of the rate at the level of 3.50-3.75%.
For cryptocurrencies, a rate hike is traditionally an unfavorable factor: it increases the yield of dollar assets, increases the cost of debt capital and reduces the risk appetite of investors. However, Bitcoin's reaction will depend not only on the decision itself, but also on the Fed's comments. If the regulator makes it clear that the September hike is a one-off, the market may take it much more calmly than signaling the start of a new tightening cycle.
Additionally before the meeting, data on US retail sales for August, which will also be released on September 16, will take on additional significance. In July, this indicator decreased for the first time in nine months. A strong recovery in consumption could bolster the case for higher rates, while weak sales could somewhat ease investors' fears of further policy tightening. The publication date is confirmed by the US Census Bureau. (
On the same day, the BLS will release August's import and export price indexes. Normally, this measure has much less impact on the market than the CPI, but in the current climate, investors will be watching closely for signs that high energy and imported goods prices are passing through on US inflation.
The next important factor will be the Bank of Japan. Its meeting will be held on September 17-18. According to a Reuters poll, the regulator is expected to raise the rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years.
For Bitcoin, the decision by the Japanese central bank is important because of the carry trade mechanism. For years, investors have borrowed the cheap yen and invested it in more profitable and riskier assets. Rising interest rates in Japan and a strengthening yen make such strategies less attractive and could lead to a reduction in leveraged positions in global markets, including cryptocurrencies. Fears about the collapse of the yen carry trade have already repeatedly become a source of increased volatility in risk assets.
Another potential source of sharp fluctuations will be September 25, when the large quarterly expiration of cryptocurrency options will take place on Deribit. Calculated based on exchange open interest as of September 9, there were approximately $14.4 billion in bitcoin options and approximately $1.8 billion in ethereum options on that date. About 41.5% of all open interest in Bitcoin options was concentrated in the September expiration.
Expiration alone does not determine the direction of the market, but such a large volume of contracts can increase short-term volatility. The study, published in the September issue of Finance Research Letters, also points to statistically significant intraday reversals in Bitcoin during option expiration periods, especially when there are large market maker positions.
On September 29, the market will receive the August JOLTS report on US job vacancies. After a strong August jobs report that showed the US economy adding 162,000 jobs with unemployment at 4.1%, the state of the labor market provided another argument for the Fed's tighter stance. Unexpectedly high job vacancies may put pressure back on Bitcoin due to rising US bond yields.
But the most important statistics after the Fed meeting will appear on September 30. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will simultaneously release its third estimate of GDP for the second quarter and data on Americans' personal income and spending for August. It is this report that contains the PCE price index, the Fed's main inflation indicator.
If the PCE shows increased inflationary pressures following the CPI and PPI, expectations for additional rate hikes before the end of the year could intensify. For Bitcoin, such a scenario would mean continued pressure from high bond yields and a strong dollar. Instead, a weaker PCE, on the contrary, is able to return to the market expectations of the end of monetary policy tightening.
The situation is complicated by the rising cost of oil. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries on September 11 approached 5%, the highest value since 2023, as expensive oil fueled fears of a new wave of inflation.
In addition, the European Central Bank has already raised key rates by 25 basis points on September 10: the deposit rate will be 2.50% from September 16. The ECB directly linked this decision to persistent inflationary pressure, in particular due to the conflict in the Middle East and the rise in energy costs.
Thus, the second half of September is a period of increased macroeconomic risk for the crypto market. In two weeks, investors will receive the Fed's decision, a possible rate hike by the Bank of Japan, the big quarterly expiration of crypto options, the US labor market data and the key PCE inflation index.
In the base scenario, the main factor for Bitcoin remains the cost of global liquidity. If the Fed and Bank of Japan simultaneously tighten policy and US inflation remains high, pressure on risk assets may persist. If the Fed makes it clear that rate hikes are nearing the end of the cycle, and the PCE shows a slowdown in price growth, the market may get a reason to recover at the end of September.
The key guide after each data release will be not only the indicator itself, but also the reaction of US Treasury bond yields and the dollar: if they continue to rise, it will be more difficult for cryptocurrencies to recover, while lower yields and the dollar can return capital to Bitcoin. Ethereum and other risk assets.
