World aviation is facing a new fuel crisis in 2026: a sharp rise in aviation kerosene prices, supply disruptions due to the war around Iran and risks to logistics through the Middle East are forcing airlines to review schedules, cut unprofitable flights and prepare for fare increases.
The reason for a new wave of discussions was the publication of the German Spiegel about that Lufthansa is reportedly preparing to ground up to 40 planes due to fuel shortages. However, the magazine later retracted the report, and Lufthansa told Reuters that the information was incorrect and likely based on an old recording of the domestic flight. According to Reuters, Spiegel admitted that he used outdated information.
At the same time, the very problem of pressure on the airline market from the side of fuel prices remains relevant. Back in the spring, Lufthansa was indeed considering crisis scenarios, including a capacity reduction of 2.5-5% and the possible temporary decommissioning of 20-40 less efficient aircraft. It was not about an immediate solution, but about a set of measures in case the situation with prices and availability of kerosene worsens.
The main blow to the industry fell on the cost of fuel. In June, the International Air Transport Association IATA reduced the global aviation industry profit forecast for 2026 by almost half — to $23 billion. According to IATA's estimate, airlines' fuel costs this year may increase to $350 billion, and the share of fuel in operating costs — up to 31.4% compared to 25.4% a year earlier.
For aviation, this is critical: fuel is traditionally one of the largest expenditure items, and a sharp jump in prices quickly turns part of the routes into unprofitable ones. Short European flights, regional routes, old aircraft with high fuel consumption and carriers with limited hedging capabilities are particularly vulnerable.
The European Commission stated in early June that there were no signs of a shortage of aviation fuel in Europe at that time. At the same time, Brussels recognized that regional airports can be the most vulnerable, and the main risk for passengers is not related to the physical lack of kerosene, but to the increase in ticket prices.
Large airlines are already responding to the situation. European carriers warn that as the old fuel hedges expire, rising kerosene costs will have a stronger impact on tariffs. Some companies are reducing flights, revising the schedule, canceling less profitable routes and accelerating the decommissioning of old aircraft.
Lufthansa in the spring announced the reduction of part of the short-haul program, and other European carriers also warned of the risk of increasing tariffs. In the US, according to the Ministry of Transport, the fuel costs of major airlines increased sharply in March: they increased by $1.8 billion, or by 56%, during the month.
At the global level, the situation is complicated by several factors at once. The conflict over Iran has increased the risks to supplies through the Middle East, the closure or restriction of air corridors has increased the length of routes and fuel consumption, and disruptions in maritime logistics through strategic routes have increased the cost of supplying oil and petroleum products.
An additional factor for Europe has been the controversy surrounding future EU rules on methane emissions during oil and gas imports. Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic and a number of other countries are in favor of postponing part of the requirements, warning that the new rules from 2027 may make it difficult to import not only gas, but also oil products, in particular aviation kerosene.
Thus, there is no confirmed systemic shortage of kerosene on the European market yet, but there are three persistent trends: aviation fuel has become much more expensive, airlines are cutting unprofitable routes and preparing to pass on some of the costs to passengers.
For passengers, this means that tickets on certain destinations may be more expensive, especially on long-haul flights and routes with low traffic. For airlines, fleet efficiency is again becoming a key factor in competitiveness. Old aircraft that were acceptable under low fuel prices are quickly becoming economically unprofitable under conditions of expensive kerosene.
In 2026, the aviation market is essentially undergoing a new post-pandemic stress test: the demand for flights remains, but the profitability of routes deteriorates. Therefore, the main trend in the coming months is not a stoppage of aviation, but a more expensive and more selective network of flights, where carriers will keep only those destinations that can withstand the pressure of fuel, demand and operating costs.
