Flavio Bolsonaro remains ahead of Brazil's incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ahead of the October 25, 2026 runoff, but the gap between the candidates has narrowed in a number of polls. This is evidenced by three nationwide polls released on October 19 by the AtlasIntel, Nexus and PoderData institutes.
According to the results of the AtlasIntel/Bloomberg study, Flavio Bolsonaro is supported by 51.1% of voters based on valid votes, while Lulu - 48.9%. The difference is 2.2 percentage points. In the previous poll, released on October 9, Bolsonaro's advantage was greater - 52.8% against 47.2%.
The AtlasIntel study was conducted on October 13-18 among 4,998 respondents. The stated margin of error is one percentage point.
BTG Pactual/Nexus recorded an even smaller difference. According to the calculation of valid votes, Bolsonaro receives 50.3%, Lula - 49.7%. The advantage narrowed from 3.2 to 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous wave. With a stated margin of error of two percentage points, the results correspond to a statistical tie.
The Nexus survey was conducted by telephone on October 16-18 among 2,002 voters.
At the same time, PoderData/Aya published a slightly different picture on October 19: Bolsonaro received 52% of valid votes, Lula - 48%. A preliminary study of this institute dated October 16 showed the equality of candidates at the level of 50%. The new wave covered 3,000 respondents, the margin of error is 1.8 percentage points.
Thus, all three recent polls show a numerical advantage for Bolsonaro, but differ in the assessment of its scale and dynamics.
In the first round on October 4, Bolsonaro won 47.03% of valid votes, Lula - 45.16%. The difference was approximately 2.22 million votes. At the same time, more than 33 million voters did not participate in the vote, which leaves a significant reserve for the mobilization of supporters of both candidates.
Director of the research company Active Group Oleksandr Pozniy, analyzing the results of the first round for the Experts Club on October 8, emphasized that not only the redistribution of the votes of the candidates who dropped out, but also the ability of the headquarters to attract voters who had previously refrained from voting will be important. voting.
"Lula will have to simultaneously mobilize her own base, attract moderate voters and reduce the level of absenteeism," Pozniy noted in a preliminary analysis of the presidential elections.
The new results partially confirm the relevance of this conclusion. Lula managed to close the gap in the AtlasIntel and Nexus studies, but Bolsonaro continues to hold a numerical lead.
Low-income voters, young people and residents of northeastern Brazil will be of particular importance to the current president. Bolsonaro, in turn, is counting on the consolidation of the right-wing and center-right electorate, as well as voters of candidates who did not make it to the second round.
The election is of international importance, as Brazil is the largest economy in Latin America, a member of the G20 and BRICS, and one of the key economic partners of the United States and China.
Six days before the vote, the results of sociological studies do not give reason to believe that any candidate will win. guaranteed The final balance of power will depend on turnout, voter mobilization and vote redistribution in the final week of the campaign.
