The National Bank of Ukraine has significantly downgraded its forecast for potato and vegetable production in 2026, creating additional challenges for the agricultural sector, the food market, and consumer inflation. According to the regulator's updated estimates, the potato harvest will decline to 12.89 million tonnes, the vegetable harvest to 7 million tonnes, while the production of fruit and berry crops will remain at 1.77 million tonnes.
These figures are presented in the National Bank of Ukraine's October 2026 Inflation Report, published on November 6.
Analysts at the Experts Club information and analytical center point out that the projected reduction in the production of two major categories of crop products – potatoes and vegetables – amounts to approximately 4.69 million tonnes compared with 2025.
According to Experts Club founder and PhD in Economics Maksym Urakin, the situation should be considered not only in terms of total harvest volumes but also taking into account production costs, storage capacities, and food affordability for Ukrainian consumers.
Potato Production Could Decline by More Than 21%
The National Bank has made the most significant revision to its potato harvest forecast.
While the regulator previously expected production of 16.40 million tonnes in 2026, the updated forecast reduces this figure to 12.89 million tonnes.
Thus, the downward revision amounts to 3.51 million tonnes, or 21.4%.
Compared with 2025, when Ukraine harvested 16.38 million tonnes of potatoes, the expected decline will amount to 3.49 million tonnes, or 21.3%.
A comparison with the pre-war period is even more revealing.
In 2021, Ukraine's gross potato harvest amounted to 21.36 million tonnes. Therefore, the forecast for 2026 envisages production that is 8.47 million tonnes, or almost 40%, below the pre-war level.
At the same time, negative trends were also observed in previous years. In 2024, the potato harvest amounted to 17.51 million tonnes, while in 2025 it declined to 16.38 million tonnes.
Thus, if the NBU forecast materializes, 2026 could become another year of significant contraction in potato production.
However, it is important to distinguish between the total gross harvest and the volume of marketable potatoes supplied to the market.
A substantial share of potatoes in Ukraine is traditionally grown by households and used for personal consumption, as seed material, or for animal feed.
Therefore, a reduction in the overall harvest does not necessarily mean a corresponding decline in supplies to supermarkets and wholesale markets.
Will There Be a Potato Shortage?
In October 2026, Ukraine's Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food stated that, despite the lower harvest estimate, the country had sufficient potatoes to meet domestic food needs.
According to the ministry's estimate, potato production in 2026 could amount to approximately 12.5 million tonnes, while direct consumption by the population is estimated at 2–2.5 million tonnes per year.
Therefore, the NBU forecast of 12.89 million tonnes is generally consistent with the agricultural ministry's assessment of the expected harvest volume.
However, having a sufficient gross production volume does not eliminate the risks of local shortages of high-quality marketable products, seasonal price fluctuations, and storage losses.
From the perspective of agricultural economics, the quality of harvested potatoes, their suitability for long-term storage, the energy supply of storage facilities, and the ability to transport products between regions will be particularly important.
According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, approximately 400 specialized farms grow potatoes as a commercial crop, while the area under professional production is estimated at approximately 60,000 hectares.
This means that a relatively small segment of specialized producers plays an important role in ensuring stable supply to the organized market.
Vegetable Harvest in 2026 Will Be 1.2 Million Tonnes Lower Than Last Year
Vegetable production is the second area of concern.
In its October Inflation Report, the NBU lowered its forecast for the 2026 vegetable harvest from 8 million to 7 million tonnes.
Thus, expected production has been reduced by 1 million tonnes, or 12.5%, compared with the previous forecast.
In 2025, Ukraine's vegetable harvest amounted to 8.2 million tonnes. Therefore, according to the updated estimate, production could decline by 1.2 million tonnes, or 14.6%, in 2026.
For comparison, 6.8 million tonnes of vegetables were harvested in 2024, while in the pre-war year of 2021 the figure was 9.9 million tonnes.
Thus, the projected harvest for 2026 exceeds the 2024 figure by only 200,000 tonnes but remains almost 30% below the 2021 level.
A distinctive feature of the vegetable market is that it consists of different product groups that vary significantly in terms of seasonality, storage capabilities, and dependence on imports.
In particular, the production of cabbage, carrots, beets, and onions is largely oriented toward the domestic market. At the same time, the supply of tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers, and other vegetables outside the growing season also depends on greenhouse farms and foreign trade.
The NBU does not provide separate forecasts for all types of vegetables in the statistics under consideration. Therefore, it is impossible to determine which particular crop will account for the largest reduction in the harvest based on these figures.
Fruit and Berries: Production Has Stabilized but Remains Below Pre-War Levels
Unlike potatoes and vegetables, the NBU left its forecast for fruit and berry production in 2026 unchanged at 1.77 million tonnes.
The same harvest volume was recorded in 2025.
At the same time, production amounted to 2.02 million tonnes in 2024 and 2.24 million tonnes in 2021.
Thus, even if production stabilizes in 2026, the fruit and berry harvest will remain approximately 21% below the pre-war level.
For this segment, the restoration of orchards, berry plantations, irrigation systems, cold storage capacities, and processing enterprises is of particular importance.
Unlike annual vegetable crops, establishing new commercial orchards requires significant initial investment, while the return on invested funds takes place over an extended period.
This makes horticulture particularly sensitive to borrowing costs, security risks, and the availability of long-term financing.
Forecasts for 2027 Have Also Deteriorated Significantly
The National Bank's revisions concern not only the current season but also the following year.
The potato harvest forecast for 2027 has been lowered from 16.78 million to 13.48 million tonnes. The difference amounts to 3.30 million tonnes, or 19.7%.
The expected vegetable harvest has been reduced from 8.1 million to 7.4 million tonnes, or by 8.6%.
For fruit and berry crops, the forecast has been adjusted from 1.90 million to 1.87 million tonnes, corresponding to a decline of approximately 1.6%.
At the same time, the NBU's updated forecast envisages a certain recovery in production in 2027 compared with 2026.
In particular, the potato harvest could increase by 590,000 tonnes, the vegetable harvest by 400,000 tonnes, and fruit and berry production by 100,000 tonnes.
However, even under this scenario, gross harvests of the main product groups will remain significantly below pre-war levels.
How the Decline in Harvests Will Affect Prices
The projected reduction in potato and vegetable production creates risks of additional price pressure but does not automatically mean that product prices will rise in proportion to the decline in harvest volumes.
Retail prices depend on the balance between supply and demand, stocks from the previous season, imports, product quality, and logistics and storage costs.
For example, according to the State Statistics Service, vegetable prices in Ukraine fell by 2.3% in September 2026 compared with August, while fruit prices declined by 5.7%.
At the same time, overall consumer inflation accelerated to 10% year-on-year in September.
This demonstrates that seasonal price fluctuations for individual food products can differ significantly from overall inflation trends.
In its October macroeconomic forecast, the National Bank expects overall inflation to accelerate to 12.5% by the end of 2026.
For 2027, the regulator forecasts a slowdown to 7.3%, followed by a return to the target level of 5% in 2028.
At the same time, these figures represent forecasts for the overall consumer price index rather than separate forecasts of price increases for potatoes, vegetables, or fruit.
What Investments Does Ukraine's Agricultural Sector Need?
According to Maksym Urakin, one of the key objectives of agricultural policy should be to increase production efficiency and reduce harvest losses at all stages of the supply chain.
Investments in irrigation, energy-efficient vegetable storage facilities, refrigeration infrastructure, and processing are becoming particularly important.
In potato production, an additional development priority could be the expansion of commercial production, improvement of seed material quality, and introduction of precision farming technologies.
For the vegetable sector, important priorities include the development of irrigation systems, increasing the share of products suitable for long-term storage, and modernization of greenhouse farms.
In horticulture, the main tasks remain the restoration of perennial plantations, reduction of post-harvest losses, and development of processing.
A separate problem is the availability of financing for small and medium-sized agricultural enterprises.
Under current conditions, significant initial expenditures on modern production infrastructure, high risks, and long payback periods limit the investment opportunities of many farms.
Therefore, government support programs, international financing, and risk insurance mechanisms can play an important role in modernizing the sector.
Experts Club Conclusions
The National Bank's updated forecast indicates a deterioration in the outlook for the production of major categories of fruit and vegetable products not only in 2026 but also in the following season.
The greatest risks are concentrated in potato production, where the expected reduction in the gross harvest exceeds 20% compared with last year.
At the same time, the situation does not indicate an inevitable nationwide shortage of potatoes and vegetables. A more important issue for consumers and businesses may be the availability of high-quality marketable products throughout the year.
For agricultural producers, declining harvests increase the importance of technological modernization, professional storage, and efficient logistics.
In the long term, the resilience of Ukraine's agricultural sector will be determined not only by the size of cultivated areas and gross harvest volumes but also by producers' ability to ensure predictable product quality, reduce losses, and develop processing.
Sources: National Bank of Ukraine, October 2026 Inflation Report, published on November 6; Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, potato harvest assessment; State Statistics Service, Consumer Price Index for September 2026.
