World wheat production in the 2026/27 marketing year will be 822.43 million tonnes, 3.13 million tonnes higher than the USDA's August forecast.
According to the USDA's September report, one of the main factors behind the revision was an improvement in Australia's crop outlook. The forecast for the country was immediately increased by 3 million tons — from 28 million tons to 31 million tons thanks to favorable weather conditions.
For Canada, the production forecast was increased by 1 million tons — to 36 million tons, for Ukraine — by 0.6 million tons, to 26 million tons. At the same time, the forecast for Kazakhstan was reduced by 1 million tons to 15 million tons, and for Russia by 0.5 million tons to 88 million tons. Despite the increase in production, the forecast for world wheat trade was reduced by approximately 0.9 million tons to 211.77 million tons. from 13.5 million tons to 12.5 million tons, as well as Kazakhstan. The decline is partially offset by increased exports from Australia, Canada and Argentina.
The US agency attributed the worsening outlook for Russian and Ukrainian exports to weak August shipments amid the fact that the war in the Black Sea region is complicating logistics.
World wheat consumption is forecast at 826.75 million tons, and ending stocks have been increased by about 3 million tons to 276.29 million tons. The main increase in stocks is expected in Russia, Australia and Ukraine.
Primary source — World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates USDA dated September 11, 2026: WASDE-675, September 2026
