In the 2026/27 marketing year, Ukraine can provide about 31.3% of world sunflower oil exports, according to Open4Business calculations based on the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) September forecast.
According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service report Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade, published on September 11, 2026, Ukrainian sunflower oil exports are forecast at the level of 5 million tons, while world exports will amount to 15.968 million tons.
Thus, almost every third ton of sunflower oil supplied to the world market may be of Ukrainian origin.
In the previous FY 2025/26, Ukraine exported about 4.036 million tons of sunflower oil with a total world export of about 13.51 million tons. At that time, Ukraine's share was about 29.9%. In the new season, this indicator may increase by approximately 1.4 percentage points.
USDA expects Ukraine to remain the world's second largest exporter of sunflower oil after Russia. Russian deliveries are forecast at the level of 5.1 million tons, which corresponds to approximately 31.9% of world exports.
Together, Ukraine and Russia can supply foreign markets with about 10.1 million tons, or more than 63% of all global sunflower oil exports.
Argentina will remain the third largest exporter with projected deliveries of about 2.05 million tons, which corresponds to approximately 12.8% of world trade. Turkey can export about 1.1 million tons, the European Union - about 850 thousand tons.
The growth of Ukrainian exports will be ensured by the recovery of the sunflower harvest and the loading of processing enterprises. The USDA forecasts the production of sunflower seeds in Ukraine in 2026/27 FY at the level of 13 million tons, compared to 10.7 million tons in the previous season.
The production of sunflower oil, according to the department, will increase to 5.418 million tons from 4.515 million tons in 2025/26 FY, or by about 20%.
At the same time, domestic consumption of sunflower oil in Ukraine is expected to be around 470,000 tons, so the main part of the additional production will be export-oriented.
In general, the USDA forecasts an increase in global sunflower oil exports by approximately 18% — from 13.51 million tons in the previous season to 15.968 million tons in 2026/27 MY.
The increase in supply will be largely associated with resumption of production in the Black Sea region, primarily in Ukraine and Russia. At the same time, an increase in imports from the largest consumers of vegetable oils, in particular India and China, is expected.
Ukraine traditionally remains one of the world's largest producers and exporters of sunflower oil. The peculiarity of the Ukrainian industry is a high share of seed processing within the country, due to which products with a higher added value are mainly exported - oil and meal, and not raw materials.
Primary source - USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade dated September 11, 2026: official USDA report.
