As reported by Open4business, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) in the September forecast increased the estimate of wheat production in Ukraine in in the 2026/27 marketing year by 0.6 million tons compared to August — to 26 million tons, but at the same time worsened the Ukrainian export forecast by 1 million tons — to 12.5 million tons.
According to the September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report published by the USDA on September 11, 2026, the increase in the harvest forecast is associated with a record Ukrainian wheat yield as the collection campaign is coming to an end. In August, the agency estimated production at 25.4 million tons.
The forecast of domestic consumption of Ukrainian wheat was increased from 9.2 million tons to 9.5 million tons, including feed consumption — from 4.2 million tons to 4.5 million tons.
At the same time, the USDA significantly increased the forecast of final wheat stocks in Ukraine — from 4.8 million tons in the August forecast to 6.1 million tons in September Imports are expected at 0.1 million tons.
Thus, despite the improvement in the harvest estimate, the additional production does not translate into similar export growth and significantly increases domestic stocks.
The USDA attributes the decline in Ukraine's export estimate, as well as Russia's, to the weak pace of shipments in August and logistical complications in the Black Sea region due to the ongoing war.
Ukraine remains one of the largest suppliers of wheat to world market. According to the USDA forecast, world trade in wheat in FY 2026/27 will be about 211.8 million tons.
The primary source is the USDA September report WASDE-675 dated September 11, 2026: USDA WASDE September 2026
